Current situation regarding the DNA analysis MH17
On the evening of Tuesday 26 August, relatives of those who died in the MH17 flight disaster were brought up to date on how the various investigations are proceeding. One of these investigations is the DNA analysis being performed by the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI) as part of the efforts by the LTFO to identify victims’ remains.
Over the past few weeks, the NFI has received from the national forensic detection team (LTFO) more than 600 samples of human remains that had been secured in the disaster area in the Ukraine and then transferred to Hilversum. The NFI also received DNA samples from relatives (i.e., family members) and from personal effects that victims had used at home.
More than three-quarters of the samples sent to Hilversum have so far yielded a DNA profile. Initial analysis suggests at the moment that the remaining samples contain too little DNA to establish a reliable DNA profile. However, these samples will now be analysed again, using more complex techniques. There is no indication of how long this process will take. Scientists do not rule out the possibility that the LTFO will need to take new samples from certain remains.
Additional research
The DNA material obtained from relatives has been analysed and profiled. Many useful DNA profiles have also been obtained from an examination of personal effects.
When the NFI has finished its additional research on all samples, it will be able to make a definitive statement about how many people it has been able to identify on the basis of a unique DNA profile. It is not known how long this process will take.
As soon as a DNA profile has been established, the comparative research phase begins. DNA experts from the NFI compare the DNA profiles of victims with those of their relatives and/or with DNA profiles established on the basis of victims’ personal effects.
So far (up to and including Tuesday 26 August), the NFI has established 283 unique DNA profiles of victims, and this number is likely to rise in the coming weeks. However, the number of unique DNA profiles established gives no definitive indication of how many victims will ultimately be identified. It merely forms the basis of further DNA investigations. After this, several further steps need to be taken before the LTFO can arrive at a positive identification.
Computer program
Using a specially developed computer program, the DNA profiles of the deceased are compared with the DNA profiles of their relatives. In those cases where a DNA profile of a missing person has been obtained from personal effects, this is also entered into the database. The program recognises matching patterns in the DNA profiles and then calculates the scientific value of any match found.
A family relationship results in a large measure of agreement between the DNA profile of the deceased and the DNA profiles of first-degree relatives. The reliability (evidential value) of this match is always quantified. Before a match can be considered a positive identification, it must legally have a likelihood of 99.99% or more. In the case of a match with a DNA profile obtained from a personal object, the match must be 100% identical.
The NFI reports the outcomes of its DNA investigations to the LTFO, which considers the results of the DNA investigations along with all other results in the identification process. If the DNA profile of the deceased cannot be matched with the DNA profiles of relatives or from personal effects, then there is no DNA match. The comparative phase of the DNA investigation is expected to take several months to complete.